Your new virtual assistant
Talk to RiskButler.com
Try our virtual assistant demo below: text (or speak), for example:
- "I want to make an investment"
- "My business is importing goods"
- "I am about to make a trade"
Risk Butler says
"Hello! I can forecast your foreign exchange (FX) risk and opportunity on financial activities such as investing, trading, importing and exporting."
Available on Facebook-Messenger
Available on Facebook-Messenger too, simply:
- "Search" for "RiskButler.com", select it, and
- "Type a message" to Risk Bulter, for example, "Talk to Risk Butler"
Speak: Chrome-browser-only (currently) as it is new technology.
Text: All major browsers, thus type in a question and press keyboard:Return
Response time: it may take up to 5 seconds as calculations are done in real-time.
Language: This assistant speaks and understands English (not other languages).
Alpha: This virtual assistant is a prototype, thus do not use it for anything serious.
Forecast time horizon is currently fixed at one month (30 days). This means that the risk and oppurtunity may be larger than calculated if the time of actual currency change is further into the future than 30 days.
The results for investments and trading is for the buy-side. For the sell-side simply interchange profit with forecast loss, and loss with forecast profit. In a typical trade, buyers loose when FX rates increase, and profits when FX rates decrease.
One so-called stochastic process (dX = θ1·(θ2 - X)·dt + θ3·X·dW) and a market data window of 100 calendar days is used for model parameter estimation.
10.000 Monte Carlo simulations are used for the calculations. "Chance" is measured at the 99 percent quantile and "Risk" at the 1 percent quantile i.e. your chance & risk can be higher than reported.
Some exchange rates are fixed within some boundaries e.g. DKK vs EUR but the calculations currently assume that the exchange rates are free floating which may exaggerate risk & opportunity forecast.