RiskButler.com™

Fintech Virtual Assistants - Machine Learning & AI

The Art of Forecasting

RiskButler.com

Talk to Risk Butler!


Risk Butler says

"Welcome to Risk Butler! I forecast stock prices and more. To get started say, for example: TELL ME ABOUT NETFLIX"

You ask (or answer)


Stock exchanges included:

  • Americas: NYSE, NASDAQ, Toronto, São Paulo
  • Europe: Copenhagen, Frankfurt, Helsinki, London, Moscow, Paris, Stockholm
  • Asia: Hong Kong, Tokyo

Assistant Notes

If several stock symbols match your inquiry Risk Butler will make a priority according to size of stock market: New York, NASDAQ, London, Tokyo - in that order.

We are continuously working to make the search match better and to make it easier for you to get exactly the stock ticker you want. Sorry for inconveniences due to misunderstandings by Risk Butler.

Language: This assistant speaks and understands English.

Forecast time horizon: 30 calendar days (1 month)

Machine learning is used to simulate the forecasts: Currently two well-known stochastic models are used.

10.000 Monte Carlo simulations are used for the calculations. "Chance" is measured as the average of simulations between the 99 percent quantile and maximum, and "Risk" is measured as the average of simulations between minimum and the 1 percent quantile. The risk measure is also known as Expected Shortfall.

Risk calculations are solely based on recent past movements of the stock in question, meaning that if future movements turn out to be much different then the forecast will not reflect this new behavior. We have better models but they are too slow to respond in the time required for a quick correspondance.

Warning!

Your profit or loss can be higher than reported.

This assistant is a Beta version.

Ask about foreign exchange risk

Talk to Risk Butler about foreign exchange risk, to get started, say:

  • "I am exporting goods"
  • "I am making a trade"
  • "We are importing services"
  • or generally say: Invest, Trade, Export or Import!

Browser

Text: All major browsers, thus type in a question and press keyboard:Return

Speak: Chrome-browser-only (currently) as it is new technology.

Available on Facebook-Messenger

Available on Facebook-Messenger too, simply:

  1. "Search" for "RiskButler.com", select it, and
  2. "Type a message" to Risk Butler, for example, "Talk to Risk Butler"

Data, Machine Learning & AI

RiskButler.com is predictive Fintech software, services and consulting using Data, Machine Learning & Artificial Intelligence (AI).

We have a scalable cloud infrastructure where individual modules can be used locally too.

A core competence and focus area is forecasting of financial market prices and your portfolio values.

We engage with your business to find the best solutions: Perfect solutions for asset management and financial institutions' client services and much more!

Four interfaces

There are four ways of using RiskButler.com analytics and forecasting capabilities:

  • via mobile/browser web app
  • via an API (Application Programming Interface)
  • by fetching pre-simulated forecasting data (think weather data) and other data
  • via virtual assistants & platforms (like Google Assistant or Home, Alexa, Cortana, Facebook Messenger)

RiskButler.com

An Example

Predictions and Backtesting

This is an example of on-going seven (7) day forecasts of the EUR/USD foreign exchange rate, using a particular so-called stochastic model.

For exchange rate trading purposes we want to predict EUR/USD rates (blue line) as well as possible, and these forecasts are pictured in the first diagram as the mean values of the simulations (green line).

In another context, a risk management context, we can use the same model algorithm, but instead of looking at the means (averages) of the simulations we instead turn our focus to the high and low forecast values, so-called percentiles.

In the second diagram, the two lower and two upper curves correspond to high and low quantiles: these are also forecasted. The objective is that the inner curve should not "break" one of the surrounding paths more often than expected by the statistical model and algorithm.

A backtest is a method to check the forecasting accuracy of a particular prediction model. RiskButler.com includes a wide variety of models that are specified in purely mathematical terms.

Backtesting is a model control method where you go back in time and pretend you do not know the past - and from here estimates are made forward in time, and thereafter compared with actual realized market prices. This is the way these two diagrams have been created.

Prices

Backtest example: simulated mean vs. actual

Limits

Backtest example: simulated outliers vs. actual

RiskButler.com

New Opportunities for Success!

Quick

It is easy to get started.

Businesses can start making well-founded financial decisions within a few weeks using a customized version from RiskButler.com.

Contact Us

Products

The full range of financial instruments are supported: Foreign Exchange, Commodities, Equities, Bonds, Swaps, Money-market instruments, Futures, Forwards, Options and so on.

Collaboration

We work closely with you to ensure we understand your business and working approach prior to offering you a perfect solution.

We collaborate with universities and advanced clients on R&D, and have finalised five projects successfully with university participation (more than ten researchers).

This ensures that we provide optimal next generation financial analytics to cover your business needs.

Safe & Fast

We provide a range of scalable IT infrastructures for businesses that are secure.

It is your choice which one that fits your business, whether cloud-based or fully/partly installed at your premises. White labelling is offered too.


Your Benefits

Optimize Your Financial Situation - Use RiskButler.com

Financial

Improve the brand and reputation of your financial institution by offering high quality services to your investor clients. And much more!

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Business

Quantify how future movements in the financial markets, for example foreign exchange movements, could affect the company's bottom line, both positively and negatively. And much more!

Learn More

Organisation

Please contact us so we can provide you with information about how RiskButler.com can serve your organisation.

Contact Us

Investor

Become part of a new investor generation by having full control and understanding of your own money and investments. And much more!

Learn More

RiskButler.com

Predictive Fintech Software and Services

Why?

Navigating between Risk and Opportunity can be the difference between Success and Failure!

Uncertainty is the situation of the unknown future.

Opportunity is a state of uncertainty where some possible outcomes can have (significant) positive influences on your enterprise value.

Risk is a state of uncertainty where some possible outcomes can have (severe) negative influences on your enterprise value.

We help professional companies navigate to remain or to become profitable and successful!

Whom?

We offer solutions and services for nearly every industry and corporate segment.

Public entities such as central banks, finance ministries, and regulators are key client segments.

A detailed list of entities that can benefit from our offerings is provided in our Support pages.

RiskButler.com is used internally or externally e.g. for providing services to your clients.

What?

Our software solutions and services are generally advanced but easy to use - we customize them to fit your specific working approach and business needs, and all that is normally needed is a standard internet browser on any device (computer, laptop, tablet, mobile). Our solutions include the following:

RiskButler.com Price Predictor - this is forecasting of specific asset prices and portfolio market values. All products (with market prices) are supported.

RiskButler.com Risk & Opportunity Management - this is risk (of loss) and opportunity (of gain) management with (optional) lines and limits (up and/or down) control.

RiskButler.com Price Analytics & Compliance - this is Volume-Weighted-Mean-Price analytics and compliance to trading rules. Visualisations and clustering analysis are unique.

RiskButler.com Pricer (calculation of market values) - here financial assets, liabilities and instruments are (theoretically) market valued, though some illiquid products may be priced within a price range.

RiskButler.com Stochastic Analytics - this is analysis of stochastic processes, back testing, prediction analytics. This can be used also for looking for "regime" changes e.g. going from low volatility to higher volatility markets.

How?

We apply science, new technology, market data and visual expressions in the financial analytics of assets, liabilities, financial instruments, and portfolios of these.

Our solutions can be used online interactively, as partly or fully automated systems (e.g. for robo-advice, with online trading), or as modules in your or third party solutions.

Ease of Integration is supplied through an API (IT interface).

Ease of Use is supplied through Software as a Service.

We provide the required fast, scalable, secure, stable and proven internet infrastructure services.

In the case of predictions, for example, the forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about past and current market values, and using computer algorithms based on financial, mathematical and statistical understanding of how the financial market evolves through time. Human judgement should normally be used throughout the process, at least to control outcomes.

To ensure the best possible solutions RiskButler.com relies on several carefully selected and different third party software modules, projects and people.