RiskButler.com™

Fintech Virtual Assistants - Machine Learning & AI

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RiskButler.com

Your new virtual assistant

Talk to RiskButler.com

Try our virtual assistant demo below: text (or speak), for example:

  • "I want to make an investment"
  • "My business is importing goods"
  • "I am about to make a trade"

Risk Butler says

"Hello! I can forecast your foreign exchange (FX) risk and opportunity on financial activities such as investing, trading, importing and exporting."

You say

Available on Facebook-Messenger

Available on Facebook-Messenger too, simply:

  1. "Search" for "RiskButler.com", select it, and
  2. "Type a message" to Risk Bulter, for example, "Talk to Risk Butler"

Browser

Speak: Chrome-browser-only (currently) as it is new technology.

Demo Notes

Text: All major browsers, thus type in a question and press keyboard:Return

Response time: it may take up to 5 seconds as calculations are done in real-time.

Language: This assistant speaks and understands English (not other languages).

Alpha: This virtual assistant is a prototype, thus do not use it for anything serious.

Forecast time horizon is currently fixed at one month (30 days). This means that the risk and oppurtunity may be larger than calculated if the time of actual currency change is further into the future than 30 days.

The results for investments and trading is for the buy-side. For the sell-side simply interchange profit with forecast loss, and loss with forecast profit. In a typical trade, buyers loose when FX rates increase, and profits when FX rates decrease.

One so-called stochastic process (dX = θ1·(θ2 - X)·dt + θ3·X·dW) and a market data window of 100 calendar days is used for model parameter estimation.

10.000 Monte Carlo simulations are used for the calculations. "Chance" is measured at the 99 percent quantile and "Risk" at the 1 percent quantile i.e. your chance & risk can be higher than reported.

Some exchange rates are fixed within some boundaries e.g. DKK vs EUR but the calculations currently assume that the exchange rates are free floating which may exaggerate risk & opportunity forecast.


RiskButler.com

Software, Services, Consulting

Data, Machine Learning & AI

RiskButler.com is predictive Fintech software, services and consulting using Data, Machine Learning & Artificial Intelligence (AI).

We have a scalable cloud infrastructure where individual modules can be used locally too.

A core competence and focus area is forecasting of financial market prices and your portfolio values.

We engage with your business to find the best solutions: Perfect solutions for financial institutions' client services.

Four interfaces

There are four ways of using standard RiskButler.com analytics and forecasting capabilities:

  1. via mobile/browser web app
  2. via an API (Application Programming Interface)
  3. by fetching pre-simulated forecasting data (think weather data) and other data
  4. via virtual assistants & platforms (like Google Assistant or Home, Alexa, Cortana, Facebook Messenger)


RiskButler.com

Predictive Fintech Software and Services

Why?

Navigating between Risk and Opportunity can be the difference between Success and Failure!

Uncertainty is the situation of the unknown future.

Opportunity is a state of uncertainty where some possible outcomes can have (significant) positive influences on your enterprise value.

Risk is a state of uncertainty where some possible outcomes can have (severe) negative influences on your enterprise value.

We help professional companies navigate to remain or to become profitable and successful!

Whom?

We offer solutions and services for nearly every industry and corporate segment.

Public entities such as central banks, finance ministries, and regulators are key client segments.

A detailed list of entities that can benefit from our offerings is provided below.

RiskButler.com is used internally or externally e.g. for providing services to your clients.

What?

Our software solutions and services are generally advanced but easy to use - we customize them to fit your specific working approach and business needs, and all that is normally needed is a standard internet browser on any device (computer, laptop, tablet, mobile). Our solutions include the following:

RiskButler.com Price Predictor - this is forecasting of specific asset prices and portfolio market values. All products (with market prices) are supported.

RiskButler.com Risk & Opportunity Management - this is risk (of loss) and opportunity (of gain) management with (optional) lines and limits (up and/or down) control.

RiskButler.com Price Analytics & Compliance - this is Volume-Weighted-Mean-Price analytics and compliance to trading rules. Visualisations and clustering analysis are unique.

RiskButler.com Pricer (calculation of market values) - here financial assets, liabilities and instruments are (theoretically) market valued, though some illiquid products may be priced within a price range.

RiskButler.com Stochastic Analytics - this is analysis of stochastic processes, back testing, prediction analytics. This can be used also for looking for "regime" changes e.g. going from low volatility to higher volatility markets.

How?

We apply science, new technology, market data and visual expressions in the financial analytics of assets, liabilities, financial instruments, and portfolios of these.

Our solutions can be used online interactively, as partly or fully automated systems (e.g. for robo-advice, with online trading), or as modules in your or third party solutions.

Ease of Integration is supplied through an API (IT interface).

Ease of Use is supplied through Software as a Service.

We provide the required fast, scalable, secure, stable and proven internet infrastructure services.

In the case of predictions, for example, the forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about past and current market values, and using computer algorithms based on financial, mathematical and statistical understanding of how the financial market evolves through time. Human judgement should normally be used throughout the process, at least to control outcomes.

To ensure the best possible solutions RiskButler.com relies on several carefully selected and different third party software modules, projects and people.


RiskButler.com

An Example

Predictions and Backtesting

This is an example of on-going hourly predictions of the one day ahead EUR/USD foreign exchange rate, using a particular model.

For exchange rate trading purposes we want to predict EUR/USD rates ( "actual") as well as possible, and these forecasts are pictured in the first diagram as the mean value of the simulations ( "mean").

In another context, a risk management context, we can use the same model algorithm, but instead of looking at the average of the simulations ( "mean") we instead turn our focus to the high and low forecast values, so-called percentiles.

In the second diagram, the two lower and two upper curves correspond to high and low quantiles: these are also forecasted. The objective is that the inner curve should not "break" one of the surrounding paths too often.

A backtest is a method to check the forecasting accuracy of a particular prediction model. RiskButler.com includes several models, and is integrated with very generalised statistical software.

Said in another way, backtesting is a model control method where you go back in time and pretend you do not know the past - and from here estimates are made forward in time, and thereafter compared with actual realized market prices. This is the way these two diagrams have been created.

Prices

Backtest example: simulated mean vs. actual

Limits

Backtest example: simulated outliers vs. actual

RiskButler.com

New Opportunities for Success!

Quick

It is easy to get started.

Businesses can start making well-founded financial decisions within a few weeks using a customized version from RiskButler.com.

We offer you a free trial and no commitment.

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Products

The full range of financial instruments are supported: Foreign Exchange, Commodities, Equities, Bonds, Swaps, Money-market instruments, Futures, Forwards, Options and so on.

Collaboration

We work closely with you to ensure we understand your business and working approach prior to offering you a perfect solution.

We collaborate with universities and our clients on R&D.

This ensures that we provide optimal next generation financial analytics to cover your business needs.

Safe & Fast

We provide a range of scalable IT infrastructures for businesses that are secure.

It is your choice which one that fits your business, whether cloud-based or fully/partly installed at your premises. White labelling is offered too.


Your Benefits

Optimize Your Financial Situation - Use RiskButler.com

Financial

Improve the brand and reputation of your financial institution by offering high quality services to your investor clients. And much more!

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Business

Quantify how future movements in the financial markets, for example foreign exchange movements, could affect the company's bottom line, both positively and negatively. And much more!

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Organisation

Please contact us so we can provide you with information about how RiskButler.com can serve your organisation.

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Investor

Become part of a new investor generation by having full control and understanding of your own money and investments. And much more!

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