Your internet connection is a little slow for RiskButler.com but may work fine anyway, else use a faster internet connection.
GPRS: 2 minutes, Good 2G: 10 seconds, Good 3G: 3 seconds, 4G: 1 second
To make a calculation click/press on one of the Portfolio icons below. The 1-Click Predict button makes a calculation for all Portfolios in one go.
Prior to making predictions, one or more Portfolios must be established with Positions. Refer to the Portfolio Section below (if closed, open the section via Menu => Show portfolios).
Say there are five (5) Portfolios and the Portfolio zoom selector is set to Positions: The 1-Click Predict will make one single calculation as though all Positions of the five Portfolios were in one big Portfolio.
Say there are five (5) Portfolios and the Portfolio zoom selector is set to Portfolios: The 1-Click Predict will make five (5) calculations, one for each of the Portfolios.
Videos on RiskButler.com's YouTube channel show how to establish a portfolio with positions.
Parameters and selectors
Base currency This is the company's reporting currency. If an individual person use home country's currency. Set it permanently in the Settings Section => App Settings.
Portfolio zoom Results of a portfolio are not simply the sum of individual position results because positions influence each other through correlation effects.
Positions and Portfolios are always used. Groups and Entities are optional i.e. you may not need them.
Positions: results are per individual position. Portfolios: results are on portfolio level. Groups and Entities have even higher aggregation levels.
Diagram A range of diagram types are available. The first group of diagrams - Area and Weather report - present prediction results at multiple future time points.
The second group of diagrams - Treemap, Circle etc. - generate graphics that show predictions at a single future time point.
The backtest diagram goes back in time to check how well the simulator forecasts compared to actual outcomes. This requires many many calculations and therefore takes more time.
Note that with the backtest diagram the forecast time horizon should not be too long if intraday (e.g. hourly data) is chosen, however the system automatically adjusts the forecast time horizon if it is chosen too long compared to available historical intraday data which is used for model parameter estimation purposes and for so-called ex-post comparison with actual market data outcomes.
Forecast horizon A future time horizon between 12 hours and 1 calendar year can be chosen. Time is measured from the calculation time (now).
Data frequency Choose between daily or hourly. Hourly data may not be available for all market data.
Note: RiskButler.com supports any market data time frequency, down to one millisecond.
Value Limits, optional parameters, set as monetary amounts in base currency.
The first input form field denotes the lower Value Limit, and the second input form field denotes the Upper Value Limit. If one or both limits are entered, the calculations "Risk of breaching lower Value Limit" and "Chance of breaching upper Value Limit" will be done. Results are measured as percentage risk or chance of breaching the monetary limit.
E.g. 7 percent risk of breaching Lower Value Limit of USD 500, and 12 percent chance of breaching Upper Value Limit of USD 1000.
Forecast points, an optional parameter: This is the minimum number of future points in time predictions are calculated.
The calculation points in time are shown on the Area and Weather report diagrams as small dots.
Portfolios are icons representing the Positions of each Portfolio. These icons work as selectors i.e. clicking/pressing an icon triggers a new calculation for that given Portfolio.
Groups and Entities are also portfolios but represent higher aggregation levels than a Portfolio. A Group can include one or more Portfolios. An Entity can include one or more Groups.
The methodology is described in the Support pages (Menu => Support).
Calculated results and predictions may be turn out to be wrong.
Refer to the Legal section
Use: Money asset class
Click on the Asset clusters button below.
Example You live in the USA and have money in a given currency, say CHF, and want to know what other currencies resemble CHF variance-wise & correlation-wise.
Search for and select the currency that you wish to compare all other currencies against. In our example select CHF.
The default diagram is the radial (round) Dendogram, you can change this after the first calculation.
The chosen currency (e.g. CHF) is highlighted in the resulting diagram.
Currencies that belong to the same cluster as the chosen currency (e.g. CHF) are grouped together. Other clusters are also shown.
Tool tips reveal values. Use the mouse pointer or touch on touch screen.
Interpretation: Money asset class
Currencies in a cluster have "similar" risk characteristics. You can see the actual values in tool tips of the individual diagram nodes.
The clusters' variance and correlation values are kind of "middle" values between each cluster and the currencies belonging to the cluster.
Parameters and selectors
# (number) of clusters is the number of groups that are generated. The default number is ten (10) clusters.
Cannot be changed currently: Variance This determines if the variance measure is considered in the selection of clusters.
Cannot be changed currently: Correlation This determines if the correlation measure is considered in the selection of clusters.
Cannot be changed, currently not used: Price change This determines if price changes are considered in the selection of clusters.
Base currency This is the company's reporting currency. If individual person use your home country's currency. Set it permanently in the Settings Section => App Settings for all uses in RiskButler.com.
Cannot be changed, currently fixed at the Money (Cash, Deposits etc.) class: Class This determines asset/liability class of the wanted clustering analysis.
Search Find and select the particular asset/liability against which all other assets/liabilities of the chosen Class are compared.
The methodology is described in the Support pages (Menu => Support).
The Big Data functionality has not been tested well yet.
Assets may belong to the same cluster purely by chance, and this relationship may not extend into the future i.e. clusters are not necessarily stable over time.
Repeated calls to the cluster analysis may result in different clusters i.e. they may not be unique
Limitation: Free market data (e.g. stock prices) from Quandl.com is limited by Quandl.com to about 50 price series per day. To remove this restriction get a free access code from Quandl.com and add it to your RiskButler.com settings. Then re-load your RiskButler.com page.
Limitation: Anonymous users portfolios are saved in the individual and specific browser device (e.g. laptob, mobile or tablet), and are not synchronized between browsers and devices.
Limitation: Simulation model is limited to the Geometric Brownian Motion model (a so-called stochastic process model).
Limitation: Other users public portfolios are not viewable.
To enable portfolio sync and more simulation models (higher precision forecasting) User must sign-on with private email and password.
Portfolios are handled in this section. As soon as a Position has been placed in a Portfolio, predictions can be made for that Portfolio in the Prediction section above.
- Each Portfolio can consist of one or more Positions
- Positions include both "Transactions" and "Holdings"
Example: say you have no Apple shares and buy 10 Apple shares today. In this case your Position is 10 Apple shares. In practice the actual delivery of the Apple shares takes typically 2-3 business days i.e. it takes 2-3 days before the transaction becomes a Holding, however as you have Apple risk exposure as soon as you have entered into the trade RiskButler.com incorporates the 10 Apple shares immediately in the calculations & predictions.
Say, you after a week buy further 5 Apple shares, thus you now have a Holding of the 10 Apple shares (previously purchased), and a Transaction of 5 Apple shares. RiskButler.com will treat this as a Position of 15 Apple shares due to the immediate risk exposure.
After a Portfolio has been established (saved) an icon representing the Portfolio is placed in the Prediction section above and just below this text information box.
Not all form fields need to be filled out when entering Portfolios and Positions, refer also to the Parameters and selectors section below.
Videos on RiskButler.com's YouTube channel show more details on how to enter Positions into the Portfolios, and more.
Example: One Portfolio "P1" with one Apple Equity Position
Establish the Portfolio P1
- Click/press on New Portfolio
- Type a name in the input form field next to the Save Portfolio button: E.g. type "P1"
- Click/press on the Save Portfolio button. Note that a new button is revealed with text P1.
Enter the Apple Position into the Portfolio "P1"
- Type "Apple" in the Search input form field, and click/press on the line below the Search field with the Apple Inc. text.
- Enter a quantity of 1 in the Quantity input form field.
- Click/press on the green Add button to the left.
That is it! You can now go to the Predictions section above, and click/press on P1 to make calculations.
An overview of all the current products included in RiskButler.com is placed at [TO COME].
RiskButler.com is designed to allow for three different methods for Position and Portfolio entry:
- Manual entry through this section
- Import from a .json or .csv file (e.g. Excel, bank/broker, Google Finance, Yahoo Finance)
- Full and automatic system integration (e.g. company Back Office or Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system)
Parameters and selectors
Decimal notation: use dot "." for the decimal. E.g. one hundred and a half is entered as 100.50
Dates & time: Currently only dates can be selected. Refer to the section below about Time.
There are currently three different measures of quantities. All measures can be entered with decimals.
- Amount: this is the amount of the (underlying) financial asset/liability.
- If it is Cash in e.g. USD then Amount is the USD amount of money. So for USD 1000 enter 1000 as the Amount.
- If it is a Commodity e.g. Spot Brent Crude Oil, then Amount is 1 barrel of Spot Brent Crude Oil. So for 1000 barrels of oil enter 1000 as the Amount.
- If it is a Commodity e.g. gold, then Amount is 1 ounce of gold. So for 10 ounces of gold enter 10 as the Amount.
- #Shares: this is number of shares. E.g. for 100 Apple shares enter 100 as the #Shares.
- #Contracts: this is number of contracts. For exchange-traded Futures one contract depends on the exchange at which the Futures are traded and the exact underlying. For e.g. Brent Crude Oil contracts traded on ICE, one contract corresponds to 1000 barrels of Brent crude oil. So for 1 contract corresponding to 1000 barrels enter 1 as the #Contracts.
Deal-price: Spot FX This is the FX rate dealt. E.g. Buy 1000 EUR/USD dealt at a rate of 1.345: Enter 1.345 as the Deal-price. This means you buy EUR 1000 and simultaneously sell USD 1345.
Deal-price: Spot Commodities, Equities, Money The Deal-price field is not currently used i.e. no need to enter.
Deal-price: Futures This is the deal price per contract.
Deal-price: Forwards, Options If underlying is
- an Equity then deal-price is price per share dealt
- a Commodity or Money then deal price is per relevant Amount (see also above about Amounts)
- a FX contract then it is the FX rate dealt
Settlement: Forwards, Futures, Options Choose between Cash or Physical settlement.
Cpty for Counterparty This is not currently used i.e. no need to select.
There are currently four (4) different Spot asset/liability classes to choose from.
- Foreign Exchange (FX)
- Equities (also known as Shares or Stocks)
- Money in the form of Cash or Deposits
Commodities: Where there is no spot commodity market, the front month contract - the nearest unexpired futures contract of a given commodity - is used as a proxy.
The generic Forwards and Options can use any of the above Spot products as the underlying. By "generic" is meant theoretical products that are not actually traded on any exchange.
More Spot products are upcoming.
Import Positions (Transactions or Holdings) into your database in RiskButler.com. There are some technical requirements which are given below:
The file can be from your accounting system, Excel, Bank, Broker, Google Finance, Yahoo Finance.
File type: .csv
- File encoding: Text file (use UTF-8 format if possible).
- Required first line (header):
- Header field order is free.
- portfolio: this is the portfolio name e.g. "USA portfolio 1"
- class: "FX" for cash; "EQ" for equities; "X" for FX; ...
- name: this is a long name for the symbol e.g. "US Dollar" for USD cash
- symbol: this is a symbol as given by RiskButler.com. E.g. "USD" for USD cash. Use the Search form field to find these names.
- symbolbase: the base currency of the asset symbol. For cash always use "USD"
- long: bought position is "long", sold position is "short".
- quantity: for cash use 1000 for one thousand.
- Example second line:
- "USA portfolio 1",FX,"US Dollar",USD,USD,long,1000
File type: .json to come ...
Time in RiskButler.com is measured in milliseconds and currently according to the UTC time.
Although local time can deviate some hours from the UTC time it will normally not have any practical implications for the calculations in RiskButler.com.
Let us know if you need to enter time with greater detail than YYYY-MM-DD, and it can be enabled.
RiskButler.com can read the detailed format: YYYY-MM-DDTHH:MM:SS:MSZ where HH is hours, SS seconds, MS milliseconds.
RiskButler.com also reads the short format: YYYY-MM-DD. For example: 2017 July 15'th is written 2017-07-15
Groups and Entities
So-called Groups and Entities are established here. Entities can include subsidiaries (which are Entities themselves), Entities can include Groups, Groups can contain Portfolios which again consist of Positions.
Information for so-called counterparty credit risk calculations is also placed in the Advanced Section.
How to use all this and more, will soon be explained in videos and here.
Entities (and Counterparties)
Changing settings here will last during your current session. Changes are immediate i.e. no need to press any Save buttons.
To change your settings permanently please go to https://riskbutler.com/en/admin/